Lurker > Suprak the Stud

pxlated posted...

In a slightly related topic: does anyone see any kind of path towards any sort of reconciliation/return to civility that doesn't take decades?

Large numbers of people on the right and left are absolutely convinced the other is evil, out to get them, etc etc etc. Not everyone is as extreme as what we see in some corners on the internet, but the sentiment is pretty wide spread. And it's not just an age thing either, which I feel like used to be the excuse. Plenty of young people are like this now too.

I hope to god i am wrong and it's not as bad as it seems but damn, how do we go forward from here?

We have probably had this discussion before

I forget, where you the person asking people not to call your parents evil because they vote republican during election night?
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

r/the_donald is calling for civil war right now because they don't understand voting and think Montana, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Florida are being stolen from them.

Some choice comments:
"After they steal the Senate the (sic) will go after President. What will we do? Just comment on Reddit?"
"What Can we do?! I feel totally helpless sitting in my house while our country is stolen by actual real life fascists. It's infuriating and I don't know what I can do!"
"Lock and load is what you can do. Be glad you can still do that at least"

"Wimpy ass move to sue for future rule. How about going there with tanks and stop this bulshit (sic) right now"

"Fucking whack we should just let the Marines run shit after Trump's second term"

"This kind of stuff is what's going to start an actual war, this open, blatant, and ignored fraud"

"We elect people who don't get it done. Trump can't do it himself. Is martial law a solution?"
"Yep. The Second Civil War has already begun."

"This is a war for our country. No doubt this is only the tip of the iceberg given these last few elections."

"Orlando Pede Here...this is complete Bullshit from the Cowards from Broward. We are livid. Some Democrat Assholes actually called us tonight and started off with.."As you know many people didn't get the opportunity to vote in the primaries...did you vote?" Once. said your damn straight we voted, they hung up IMMEDIATELY...They are looking to add names to fake ballots in Florida. Cot damn I'm pissed."

"Put a small army of US Marshalls n a jet to Fort Lauderdale RIGHT FUCKING NOW! This is a civil rights matter. Broward Zdems are stealing the voting rights of millions of Floridians!"

"Fuck all democrats. No more playing nice with these pieces of shit."
"Gloves are off. I'm getting in shape through these winder months, preparing for their shit next spring."
"Haha I have been hitting the gym 5 days a week in preparation of running into that soy boy that wants to run his mouth or pull a sneak sucker punch."

"We should split the US at this point"
"I WOULD RATHER FIGHT THEM FOR IT"
"Nope. They can either learn to live with us or we can learn to CRUSH THEIR CORRUPTION"

Those are just the violent ones. There are many more advocating arresting big democratic figures to teach them a lesson.

None of them know how Arizona's system works. They all think these are votes the democrats found. They don't understand why it takes so long even though Arizona was very good about explaining everything. They don't care. They just hate democrats so much that they must be at fault and corrupt and bad things need to happen to them.

It is scary over there. More so than usual. Something is bubbling up and I hope it is just bluster.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Oh, yeah, I know that. I actually defended the Green Party candidate because she seems pretty cool for doing that.

I just thought it was funny that people (not just Reg, I see it all over Twitter) are blaming the Green Party for tripping Sinema up when Sinema herself was in the Green Party and running in elections when she first got into politics.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Reg posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Oh. Maricopa came in!

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

wait, I didn't realize there was a Green Party candidate in that race

jfc that shitstain needs to fuck off

Something really funny about this that I found while thoroughly researching Sinema some more today:

Sinema first ran for the Arizona House of Representatives in 2002, as an independent affiliated with the Arizona Green Party.[20] She finished in last place in a five-candidate field, receiving 8% of the vote.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

That is painfully accurate.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I have been very impressed with Arizona, honestly. Incredibly easy to follow and transparent and I would've imagined it would be way more complicated since 25% of their votes are mailed in. Each time votes are added the twitter account for whatever state agency it is (I forget) posts which county is coming in, how many votes, and how many votes are left. Very well run even though it is SUPER slow.

I don't know what is going on in Florida. That is just a straight up dumpster fire. I do look forward to half of the country crying "FRAUD" no matter what happens.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060696957843193857

Since he posted that roughly 21k from Pima (Sinema's strongest county) came in and so did part of some other county that he wasn't around to post. Numbers there are...I dunno. It could go either way. Maricopa is what matters most. But that is what is left at this point.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Corrik posted...

It would be embarrassing if McSally lost the ballots they are counting cuz the demographics are so pro repub.

I thought that too, but overall in 2012 Flake's margin went from 5% to 3%. Don't know the exact numbers. Voting this way may skew democratic for whatever reason.

That said there is still a ton in Maricopa and a lot of red parts of that county, so it is no where near over. McSally could still win easily.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

And of course his scumbud shows up to defend him.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

UltimaterializerX posted...

If Trump steps in with the feds to "fix" Arizona/Georgia/Montana/Florida, you have only yourselves to blame and don't get to complain about it. Ever.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Arizona I buy. I'm loyal to math and it fits there. But Florida? No chance this is legit given the math. There is just no possible way.

##Vote: Ulti

smh can't even keep his story straight
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Ulti, you may be beyond help, but in case you aren't, the reason votes are coming in late in Arizona is because they allow for mail-in votes. 25% of all their votes are mail-in. These are favoring Sinema thus far. They aren't coming in from "blue areas", they come from all over the state with each county reporting. The reddest county in the state showed a 400 vote gain for Sinema just because of the nature of these votes.

The reason it is taking so long is because Arizona takes this seriously. If your signature doesn't match or looks a little off, they have to call and verify you intended to send the vote and it wasn't falsified. Votes will continue coming in probably until Tuesday.

In the last election, Flake went from up 5% on election night to up 3% by the end of this. It is entirely reasonable to assume such a close race could flip. In order for this to be a democratic conspiracy, it would literally have to involve every single county, in a state with a red governor, in a state with a mostly red legislature.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

UltimaterializerX posted...

I was talking about Florida. I know Sinema is Arizona.

I'm actually very inclined to believe Sinema won fairly if she ends up winning close. Arizona's a fair state. But I will never, ever trust Florida. Learned that lesson in 2000.

UltimaterializerX posted...

If you don't think it's beyond fishy that votes are still being found in 4 states, all in blue areas, you are long past the point of help.

Lasa, archive this.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Lasa, don't archive that.
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Corrik posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-election-broward-turnout-thursday-20181108- [space] story.html?fbclid=IwAR3pDLWv__ZwVRhZJd79U82H0WdwOlh9Lbtt1-i_cO_mEm971Bu0gsStdL8

More people in Broward voted for the states commissioner of agriculture, chief financial officer and attorney general positions than they did for the Senate, according to the preliminary county results.

That's your key that this is 100% election fraud. Not even remotely debatable.

It is because they made their ballot weird and people missed the Senate race.

However, Democrat lawyers are going to go argue that they did vote for Nelson and it wasn't counted.

Gonna be settled in courts.

Florida with confusing ballots?

Seems implausible if you ask me!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/florida-teacher-finds-provisional-ballot-box-in-storage-area/

Florida is really fucking up.

Florida just isn't allowed to have elections at this point anymore. They're going on probation until they figure this out.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1060675442301124608

Damn non-Texans. They ruined Texas!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I'm not saying Sinema is going to win (way too many votes out) or saying this is even a good strategy going forward, but:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kyrsten-sinema-not-progressive_us_5bdca881e4b09d43e31edfa3

But thats not who Sinema is anymore. Or if it is, shes been hiding it for more than half of her career in elected office. Shes now the type of moderate more likely to punch a hippie, metaphorically speaking, than to dance with them. A look at her record, combined with interviews with Democrats and progressives in the state many of whom didnt want to go on the record criticizing their partys best chance to win statewide office since Janet Napolitanos gubernatorial victory in 2006 show a politician who is willing to buck progressive wishes and sometimes seems to go out of her way to aggravate the left.

While other Democrats in heavily diverse Sun Belt states Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Andrew Gillum in Florida and David Garcia in Arizona are trying to juice up minority turnout and expand the electorate, Sinema is equally focused on wooing independents and Republicans, while hoping progressives stay in line.

In competitive races, Abrams lost, Gillum lost, Garcia lost. All different races, sure, but maybe AZ was smart to nominate a more moderate democrat for its senate race considering the demographics of the state.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

It would be strange to accuse Arizona of fraud considering the infrastructure there is entirely republican.

In Florida I think the ballots are tabulated entirely by alligators on crystal meth which may explain some of the weirdness.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Regardless of how this winds up, there is something hilarious about MAGA Twitter not understanding how mail in ballots work and complaining about obvious fraud.

"Pima was at 99% and now she just get another 15k votes out of nowhere? DONALD TRUMP STOP THIS HELP US" Like the Dems were honest about the percentages and then just snuck in extra votes a day later hoping no one would notice.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

23k of 80k from Pima just came in. Sinema gained a net of 7k from those.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

Up by a little under 9k now!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Fair enough. The Green Party is butt, sure, I can agree with that!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I took "that shitstain needs to fuck off" referring to the candidate, not the party (or Stein).

I'm actually pretty happy with this individual candidate, tbqh!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

The Maricopa County Recorders Office said it still had about 345,000 ballots left to count.

And, while this is very exciting, we have no idea where these ballots were from, if they were randomly distributed, or if they came from a bluer than average section of the total mail ins.

So don't get too excited just yet.

*Debbie Downer trombone*
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

If she isn't there, Green Party runs someone else who may actually not drop out. Her running, dropping out, is best case scenario. Green Party is always going to run somebody because they like how their farts smell. At least this candidate realized it was close and got out of the way!

Blame the party but not her. She done good.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

No, no she's actually cool.

Dropped out like a week before and told all her voters to vote Sinema. It may have helped if the margin is razor thin at the end, honestly. She's kind of a hero.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

That isn't all the mail ins in Maricopa either, apparently.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Oh. Maricopa came in!

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Sinema just shot up to 0.8 vs. 0.3 for McSally on Predict it and I have no idea why.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Betting markets are completely overreacting to the Yuma update and Sinema and McSally may be tied soon in share price.

Might be worth a look, imo...
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

https://twitter.com/ZaRdOz420WPN/status/1060541940238823425

He genuinely believes the democrats and republicans cheated him out of...130k votes.

That legitimately does deserve a lol imo.

(that was retweeted by Canova)

Southern Florida, man.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Isn't Broward the county where a significant amount of ballots were reported with votes for Nelson but not Gillum? Or maybe I have it backwards.

It's not a stretch to think something weird is happening there, right?

https://twitter.com/Tim_Canova/status/1060558472796868608

They guy Corrik quoted was DWS competitor and he is arguing she...cheated? For herself? But let the other two candidates lose? Because...republicans...are the uni-party?
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Yuma just added their totals to Arizona and Sinema netted 400 votes or so.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

Betting markets went crazy and Sinema shot up 0.14. McSally is still favored though!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/wisconsin/

Tammy Baldwin might be interesting too. Like Klobuchar, she does a great job keeping the bleeding to a minimum in the rural areas which a lot of Dems struggled to do in red/purple/even blue states yesterday. I am not as impressed with Evers even though he had a tougher opponent.

Again, I don't know if any of these could do a good job in a primary scenario where you're getting all the most liberal voters out there, but I think, strategically, some one from one of these states would be ideal at the top of the ticket. Or at least VP consideration.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/ohio/

This is another really good results for Dems in a state that went extremely poorly for them overall. He doesn't quite have the same rural appeal that Klobuchar does based on these numbers, but he didn't really need it. He may not have as much appeal in places like Iowa/Wisconsin as Klobuchar, but maybe! Plus, if the Dems take Ohio suddenly those aren't as important.

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/pennsylvania/

I don't know much about Bob Casey or Tom Wolf, so I don't know what sort of national appeal they have. But that would be a really good way to shore up what is probably the most important of those three states. I am fairly confident Michigan comes back, but Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are a bit more uncertain to me.

I'm just trying to find good candidates for 2020 that have a good chance winning the three states we really need to win back.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

SupremeZero posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

That's true, but McSally has a decent lead already so this would need to break pretty heavily in Sinema's favor. I hope you're right!

It's from Maricopa county, it most likely would.

Maricopa barely went to Sinema and it traditionally goes to republicans and they don't know where in Maricopa they come from and there are some really red areas of the county.

You're really hoping for Pima county to come up big.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/minnesota/senate/

So uh Klobuchar did ridiculously well in rural areas compared to like everyone else.

I know she doesn't have much of a national profile (well, as much as some others) but if democrats really need only Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, this is the kind of candidate that might do really well there.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

That's true, but McSally has a decent lead already so this would need to break pretty heavily in Sinema's favor. I hope you're right!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

(I think he means a different Scott)
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Scott is 100% winning, yes.

McSally is like...99%. There isn't a good reason to hope there either.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

No to CA or TX, but I think we can bridge party lines here and agree that people who choose to live in Florida probably should be sent pretend ballots that they can fill in with crayons and feed to their local gator.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

Speaking of terrible people harassing people at their homes...

https://twitter.com/NYMag/status/1060598491498586112

Dammit Antifa.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

Yeah I dont have a strong opinion on Nelson vs Sinema, but McSally > Scott for sure

Sinema is young and dynamic and if she wins I think that is a democratic seat for the foreseeable future since Arizona is trending blue and she'll have incumbency benefits.

Florida is weird and they're just as likely to vote Nelson out next time. McSally is 100% better than Scott, sure, but I think Sinema is an easier hold in the future.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

pxlated posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

"Fucker Carlson" is a great typo

Here's another article:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/08/mob-tucker-carlsons-home-antifa-break-door-chant-fox-host/1927868002/

What a group of absolutely garbage humans, jeez. Intimidating a political opponents wife ranks near the bottom of political discourse.

No i think what you meant to say was "yeah! Antifa rulez!!1!"

Remember, we are all a bunch of mob supporting, echo chamber, pro-violence anti-jobs whackos

Soros didn't send me my check yet so I'm grumpy.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

TheRock1525 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

TheRock1525 posted...

Btw Nelson is within the .25% for an automatic hand recount in Florida.

Oh God if Nelson somehow wins and Sinema somehow takes Arizona, Trump's "tremendous success" could be one Senate seat.

Neither of those are that likely to happen, sadly.

I feel like Im always the biggest downer in this topic.

*cue Debbie Downer trombone*

538 is sticking firm with a +2 gain to Republicans in the Senate. That would mean 53-47 which would assume either a Sinema or Nelson win.

Ill do a backflip if that happens, but I dont really know why 538 is that optimistic. In Arizona, most of the outstanding votes are in that big huge county that I forgot the name of. But Sinema won by a very slim margin, the county usually goes red, and they dont know where the votes are from in that state.

I would love Sinema in the senate (over Nelson honestly if Im picking one) but I am not optimistic.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

xp1337 posted...

I mean, I'd lean against either FL or AZ SEN flipping to the Dems, but I also don't think it's a done deal.

Suprak the Stud posted...

I feel like Im always the biggest downer in this topic.

to be fair you predicted the Republicans holding the House and then the Democrats had their biggest House net since Watergate. >_>

*cough cough*

I also predicted a net gain of republicans by 3 in the senate though! And I predicted 10 governors for Dems and we only got 7.

So one over one under and one just right.

Call me Goldilocks, mother fuckers.

(Not meant to be disparaging, for some reason mother fuckers feels like it belongs there)
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

TheRock1525 posted...

Btw Nelson is within the .25% for an automatic hand recount in Florida.

Oh God if Nelson somehow wins and Sinema somehow takes Arizona, Trump's "tremendous success" could be one Senate seat.

Neither of those are that likely to happen, sadly.

I feel like Im always the biggest downer in this topic.

*cue Debbie Downer trombone*
---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

"Fucker Carlson" is a great typo

Here's another article:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/08/mob-tucker-carlsons-home-antifa-break-door-chant-fox-host/1927868002/

What a group of absolutely garbage humans, jeez. Intimidating a political opponents wife ranks near the bottom of political discourse.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

RBG would need to hold on until Dems have the presidency and a majority in the senate.

Dems could win the presidency, assume offie, and RBG could retire one day later, and Mitch McConnell would say it is unfair to nominate a Supreme Court justice within an election cycle.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Oh and I guess I was surprised by Texas. I was assuming a Cruz +10 or so. That margin was way below most polls I saw.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

538 is currently projecting D+37 in the House which is pretty huge (and like +5 relative to last night).

That isn't right I don't think. A +37 is them winning every single uncalled race and they just posted a big article about uncalled races saying that the republicans were favored in several of them. A decent chunk of those go to Dems so you're probably looking at a +32 to +34, but I would be surprised if they hit every single one.

They think all the California results will flip with mail in ballots for the house races. Dk if I agree with that tho.

Yeah I saw that. They do say they think "most if not all" will go to the Dems so it isn't 100%. One some places have called already (because they're in the lead going into this and these skew democratic) but the republicans lead in the other 4. It is possible based on what they said that they all go democratic, but they also aren't sure how many will actually flip at this point since they aren't sure what the exact lean is on these just yet.

Beyond those MN6 and NC9 are likely to go to the republicans. And there are two or three that are true toss ups at this point.

So gaining 9 out of those 13 is possible, but could be tough.

It makes 538 validated on the house but not on the Senate. Senate is where they skewed polls tho for their predictions.

Their median guess was +38 so if the Dems finish +37, that is honestly remarkable. I was highly skeptical they'd get it right their first try with so many confounding factors. And, sure, there is a bit of luck, but that is amazing to get it so close like that.

The senate is way less impressive (although, again, this runs on probability and a lot of the fault is in the polling but some is in the model itself, sure). Like you said, they added leans for every poll based on past history, which I actually think is probably a good idea. For example, in Nevada almost all polls showed Heller ahead with the raw poll numbers. When 538 did their adjustment to try and account for biases and leans, they have Rosen just ahead which actually works. Montana has a weighted average of +3.5 which is likely very close to the final count.

But then you have Indiana with adjusted polls up 3 for Donnelly (lol) or 0.5 for McCaskill (lol). Now, a lot of the fault is in the polling itself. Donnelly was in the lead for most polls, and while McCaskill raw polls would have her down (like RCP), they were nowhere near where she actually lost. Polling this cycle was overall pretty good, but they got Indiana and Missouri way off. I don't know where the error is there. Possibly oversampling? I'd have to look into the raw numbers.

I think 538 did a really good job this cycle. I used a combo of their data and RCP and felt like I wasn't too surprised, other than by how good 538 was on the house projections.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."